Daily Commentary: June 14, 2024

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Here’s the Trading Game Plan

Posted by Pete Stolcers on June 14
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The market broke out to a new all-time high on news this week. Here’s what to expect.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – This month the market has benefited from good economic reports and a decline in inflation. The Fed is not going to cut anytime soon because they don’t have to. The market is at an all-time high and fear of a recession is low.

From a technical perspective, we are at the all-time high. The breakout this week is going to be tested and we will find out if it is going to hold. The market dipped in April and then it made a marginal new high on light volume. That is NOT bearish, but it is not overly bullish either. It shows that the level of conviction is fairly light.

We’ve seen lower opens most days this week and in every instance the market was able to rally off of those lows once support was confirmed. This is a tenuous rally and the current trend will prevail as we head into a news vacuum the next two weeks. We have two holidays coming up and they typically suck the life out of the market. I am expecting a gradual float higher with constant “bid checks” after every move up. The action is largely driven by trading programs at this level. Long-term Asset Managers are not very motivated to load up on stocks at the all-time high. Since the action is program driven, conditions will be choppy and we can expect rallies and drops during the day.

I am as neutral as I can be at this level. I believe that the market is not going anywhere fast. From a swing trading standpoint you can sell OTM bullish put spreads or bearish call spreads if you have a stock with relative strength or relative weakness respectively.

From a day trading standpoint the highest probability trades have come on the long side after the market probes for support and confirms it. Overnight we tested the low from Thursday. Let’s see if it holds. I will say that I have been able to find some nice day trading shorts and the price action is more consistent on the long side. Stocks that are pushing up to new highs are struggling to advance. Of course there are a handful of exceptions each day. On the other hand, stocks that have rallied with the market and that are hitting resistance have been rolling over very easily and the downward price action has been very consistent. Make sure to look for trades on both sides. The volume is low so keep it light.

Support is at the low from Thursday and resistance is at the all-time high.

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