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Very Odd Trading Week Ahead
www.oneoption.com
Traders will be waiting for the FOMC Statement and then there’s a holiday the next day.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – The S&P 500 is trading 40 points higher than the close Friday and any concerns over the Israel/Iran conflict are fading. Wars have a very temporary market impact.
There are a number of economic releases this week and I will be watching for additional signs of deceleration. Empire Manufacturing fell to -16 from -5.9. I’ve been mentioning that there is an inventory buildup because of tariff front running and that these numbers would start to decline. The economic releases will all take a back seat to the FOMC statement Wednesday.
The Fed has been hawkish and I am not expecting any big news. They will be slightly more dovish than they have been and that might pave the way for a rate cut this year.
We typically get one big trading day during the week of triple witching and the holiday makes that more likely Monday or Tuesday. Thursday is a holiday and I doubt they will wait until Friday to roll position. Wednesday they will be squared up and they will wait for the statement.
The open today is testing the high from Friday. If the market is going to make a decisive move higher today it will happen early and we will fill the gap in from Friday. This is a gap up and the longer it holds the greater the chance that we will move higher. If we are going to see profit taking, that selling pressure will smack this gap up down.
Let’s see if the market can recover from the drop Friday. An early breakout should set up some longs for the first half of the day. This has been a choppy environment. If you have nice gains, take them. Do not assume that moves will be sustained.
Support is the low from Friday and resistance is the high from Friday.
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