Tomorrow’s FOMC Statement will provide a timeline for the next rate cut.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The last two days the market has been reacting to the war in the Middle East. Wars have a very temporary market impact and the US will not be putting “boots on the ground”.

Triple witching is being disrupted buy Juneteenth. Normally we see a trend day as institutions roll positions, but I don’t believe we will see one this time. Institutions will not wait until Friday, Thursday is a holiday and they will not have enough time to roll after the FOMC Statement. We saw a move higher on the open yesterday and then a gradual drift lower the rest of the day. That type of consistent price action tells me that most of the positions might have been “rolled” yesterday. I don’t believe triple witching is going to have much of an impact the rest of the week.

The Fed has been hawkish. They have been expecting tariff related inflation and it has not materialized. Chinese exports to the US have been halted during the last two months and those manufacturers are sitting on mountains of inventory. They are slashing prices and I believe this will negate the impact of tariffs over the next few months. China has been selling as much as then can in Europe and the EU is accusing them of “price dumping”. There are signs of an economic slowdown and job growth is declining. The Fed has been one of the only central banks in the world not to cut.

I believe that the Fed will wait to cut rates this fall. That might temporarily pacify investors, but they will get very nervous in late July and August. Q1 earnings and economic reports were artificially inflated because the threat of tariffs pushed demand forward. That glut of inventory has to be worked off and the numbers the next few months will start to deteriorate. As Q2 earnings season approaches companies are likely to “warn”.

From a technical standpoint, the market bounce is struggling to advance. The candle bodies are tiny and resistance is building. I believe the last upside catalyst is the big beautiful bill and I hope it gets passed before the 4th of July so that the focus shifts back to economic data points. I don’t believe trade deals will have a major market impact from this point forward. The deals will still included a tariff base level and if the negotiations are proceeding, the deadline will be extended. If the market was going to rally on trade deal news, it would have happened after the US/China trade deal was announced last week. The market moved a bit higher on the news and then gave back those gains. This was a big “tell” in my opinion and I believe tariff/trade deal news will not have a big impact from this point forward.

From a swing trading standpoint I am waiting for my short to set up in a few weeks. The market is not likely to move much between now and the 4th of July. If the big beautiful bill does not produce a new market high, it will be another sign that resistance is building. Until then, I am day trading and I am taking a few overnight swings.

When you day trade, you have to like the stock on a swing basis. The intraday price action has been choppy and if you are leaning on a good D1 chart you can hold the position overnight if it moves against you intraday. The D1 trend will prevail and you might need to wait a day or two to realize gains. This is not a time to build positions or to “hold bags” overnight. If that’s happening to you, focus on entering better. One or two good stocks a day is all you need and you should not be sitting on a basket of failed day trades. Be very selective in your picks. If the trade has a decent gain… take it. Don’t expect sustained intraday moves.

This morning the market is going to test the low from yesterday. If that support fails quickly the market will try to fill in some of the gap up from Monday. Global markets were down marginally overnight so there is some selling pressure. Be very selective and expect a dull trading session. That mindset will serve you well today.

Yesterday’s range is support and resistance.