© Copyright 2025 eOption, a division of Regal Securities, Inc., Member
FINRA/
SIPC |
Important Disclosures
950 Milwaukee Ave., Ste. 102 | Glenview, IL 60025
The information on this web site is for discussion and information purposes only. All accounts accepted at the discretion of eOption which accepts customer orders only on an unsolicited basis, and does not make any recommendations regarding any security or securities product with the possible exception of orders executed by our full service bond desk. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any security or securities product. Online trading has inherent risks due to loss of online services or delays from system performance, risk parameters, market conditions, and erroneous or unavailable market data.
FINRA BrokerCheck reports for Regal Securities and its investment professionals are available at www.finra.org/brokercheck.
Options Disclosure: Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading options, you must be approved for options trading and read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. A copy may also be requested via email at support@eoption.com or via mail to eOption, 950 Milwaukee Ave., Ste. 102, Glenview, IL 60025. Online trading has inherent risks due to loss of online services or delays from system performance, risk parameters, market conditions, and erroneous or unavailable market data.
eOption Commissions: Broker-assisted orders are an additional $15. Option strategies involve multiple purchases; therefore your transaction costs may be significant for option strategy trades. A commission rate of $2.00 for equities and $3.99 + $.10/contract for options, per execution, applies to orders entered and filled by eOption's Auto Trade Desk and does not apply to customers who enter their trades directly into the eOption platform and are not utilizing the Auto Trade desk.
Broker Comparison: The competitor rates from published websites were verified on 05/25/2023 and are believed to be accurate, but not guaranteed. Commissions are subject to change without notice. At some firms, commissions may not reflect broker-assisted fees, orders over 1,000 shares, penny stock trades, OTCBB, pink sheet stocks or foreign stock orders. Firms may offer reduced commissions if additional criteria are met.
Blog & Commentary: eOption is neither affiliated with, sponsored by, nor endorses commentary and the opinions expressed are solely their own. Content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and eOption cannot attest to its accuracy or completeness. No information provided has been endorsed by eOption.com and does not constitute a recommendation by eOption to buy or sell a particular investment. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions, and eOption makes no investment recommendations and does not provide financial, tax or legal advice.
The Market Looks Good
www.oneoption.com
This was just a normal round of profit taking in a bullish trend. Fund rebalancing ran its course and that slightly negative influence ran its course this week.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY –Durable goods orders were better than expected (1.7%) and the third estimate of Q1 GDP came in at 2% (vs 1.3%). Initial jobless claims dropped to 239K. Powell still believes that a soft landing is possible and the Fed is leaving the door open for more rate hikes. Central bankers were generally hawkish at a summit this week. China’s manufacturing PMI came in soft at 49.0 as expected.
Bank stress tests were released. According to the report, bank balance sheets are strong and large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession and continue to lend to households and businesses even during a severe recession.
All 23 banks tested remained above their minimum capital requirements during the hypothetical recession, despite total projected losses of $541B. Under stress, the aggregate common equity risk-based capital ratio-which provides a cushion against losses-is projected to decline by 2.3 percentage points to a minimum of 10.1%.
The $541B in total projected losses includes over $100B in losses from commercial real estate and residential mortgages, and $120B in credit card losses, both higher than the losses projected in last year’s test. The aggregate 2.3 percentage point decline in capital is slightly less than the 2.7 percentage point decline from last year’s test but is comparable to declines projected from the stress test in recent years. The disclosure document includes additional information about losses, including firm-specific results and figures.
The action will be slow and the market closes early Monday. The 4th of July is on Tuesday so most traders will take Monday off. We do get a nice round of economic data next week and the jobs report will be posted a week from Friday.
In general, I like the market and I favor trading from the long side. I feel that Q2 rebalancing has run its course and that negative influence is behind us. Credit concerns will wane after the bank stress tests and economic growth is still good. There is room for more tightening, but we are close to the end. The action is likely to slow down today. Expect LPTE and try to find a few decent trades. Be very selective and make sure the stocks you are trading have above average volume.
The market will open strong. There was not any news to justify a gap and go rally today. Overseas markets were up slightly. Be patient and wait for a dip. The price action has been choppy this week. If we get the dip, wait for horizontal support (tails) or a bullish hammer/bullish engulf. If the market compresses for an hour and it holds the gap, we will not get a dip and it will be a sign that buyers are in control. Start scaling into longs after an hour of trading if you see this pattern. It would be a sign that the market is going to drift higher.
Support is at $435.54 and $438.11. Resistance is at $443.61
Enjoy your celebration of our great nation. Happy 4th of July!
Content is provided by OneOption, LLC, which has no affiliation with Regal Securities, Inc. (“Regal”) This commentary is provided for information purposes only, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation by Regal to buy or sell securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Regal has not participated in the creation of the OneOption content and does not directly or indirectly endorse the content. Any reliance on this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.