Daily Commentary: March 01, 2024

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Market Testing the All-Time High

Posted by Pete Stolcers on March 01

The market tested the bid this week and buyers are still interested. I am a little more bullish short-term. The long-term technicals are still very bullish. Major news next week.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – The market has been compressing in a tight range since the NVDA earnings reaction. That is mildly bullish short-term and the long-term technicals still look very bullish. The market has been able to digest gains and there was not any retracement. The news has been light this week, but that will change next week. I am expecting solid economic numbers and a good jobs report. The key piece of information will be the wage component. It needs to ease from the .6% increase that was reported last month. I feel that some of that was due to minimum wage increases by some states at the start of the year and it should ease. A .3% reading would be market friendly and job growth should be 200K+ based on the 4 week average of initial claims. 

China’s PMIs were a touch soft… if you can trust them. I am seeing evidence that Chinese consumers are cutting back consumption in an extreme manner. That has resulted in deflation the last few months and that is a very dangerous economic environment. Foreign investment has been leaving the country for years and it dipped below 0% for the first time in decades. The PBOC is easing and they have banned short selling. Their bubble is popping. Property prices are plunging and there are no buyers.

The overnight news is light and overseas markets are up nicely. There is some beginning of the month buying. We’ve tested support this week and it held. I am looking for a generally bullish day, but there is no need to rush trades. 

Support is at $503 and resistance is at the all-time high. 

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