Daily Commentary: March 05, 2024

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Wait Before Buying – This Is A Decent Drop

Posted by Pete Stolcers on March 05

The close yesterday was soft and we are seeing follow through this morning. Here is the game plan today.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The market staged a nice rally Friday and it made a new all-time high. When we have a breakout we want to see nice follow through buying in the next few days. Late yesterday the market spiked higher and it was smacked down on better than average volume. That suggests some selling pressure. Overseas markets were marginally lower and the S&P 500 will start on a soft note this morning.

This week will be filled with major economic releases. ISIM Services PMI will be released after the open today. ISM manufacturing, ADP, JOLTS and the Unemployment Report will be released during the week. I believe that the jobs numbers will be healthy based on the initial jobless claims numbers the last four weeks. A potential boost could come Friday from a drop in the hourly wage component. It came in at a “hot” .6% last month. That is inflationary and I believe the spike was due to states raising minimum wages January 1.

The market rally has been strong. We have a big single day and then we compress. Another big single day and then we compress. There have been hardly any dips and they are brief and shallow. This is consistent with strong buying. I would like to see broad based participation, but the move has largely been tech related. Healthcare and Financials have also been strong.

Earnings season is winding down and we will hear from retailers. Those results will vary from company to company. In general, Q4 will be good, but guidance could be soft.

The FOMC statement is two weeks from Wednesday. I don’t expect any big changes. They will continue to pause until summer. We should expect “higher for longer” and economic conditions have been stable even with higher interest rates. We don’t want to see weak economic reports and I am not expecting them.

I am favoring premium selling strategies like OTM bullish put spreads for swing traders.

Day traders should wait for support and buy. Down opens are our best scenario. This is a fairly decent overnight drop. The most bullish scenario would be a long green candle to start the day. If it holds, it is a sign that buyers are engaged. Then we would watch for a few more that start filling the gap. I’m not expecting this. The backdrop has a slightly bearish tone and I am expecting a gradual leak lower. That means we could be waiting more than an hour for support to form. This is another bid check and it needs to run its course just like Monday – Wednesday last week. I know this process can be frustrating, but it is what keeps the market from getting too far ahead of itself and it is healthy for the longer-term up trend. From a long only perspective, there will be days when you have to keep your powder dry. Once support is established, we will have bullish trend days like Friday and we can trade aggressively.

Support is at SPY $508.50 and resistance is at the high from Monday.

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