Daily Commentary: March 13, 2025

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Market Should Bounce

Posted by Pete Stolcers on March 13
www.oneoption.com

After a big decline and multiple tests of support the market should be able to bounce on good inflation numbers.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – The market finally rolled over and the selling pressure has been heavy. Option implied volatilities spiked and VIX hit a resistance level that is consistent with a market low. We’ve hit this level during recent drops and I am expecting a bounce. The CPI and PPI were better than expected and inflation fears will subside. That will give the Fed more breathing room to ease and the FOMC is next week. Triple witching is also next week so we can expect some volatility.

Buyers are not going to engage until support has been tested and confirmed. We’ve had that this week. Overnight the S&P 500 tested that support once more and it bounced off of it. This should give buyers some confidence and shorts will be ready to take gains after a big drop when there are signs of support.

Initial jobless claims came in at 220K and that is consistent with good employment.

The ideal set up this morning is a dip that probes for support. Overseas markets were mixed so there is not much influence there. We want that dip to be wimpy with mixed overlapping candles. We don’t want it to last long. Why? This was good news! We need to see some aggressive buying. If we get through the first hour without stacked green candles, it will be a sign that buyers are not that interested and that sellers are still in control. We need to get through the high from Wednesday on the first attempt with ease once the rally starts. If we don’t see that urgency on decent volume, the bounce will fail and we will just see another choppy day with a good range.

If the market can’t rally on good news after a deep drop, it will be a sign that the selling pressure is very heavy. I am not expecting this. The Senate is going to vote on the CR and that has the potential to spark a relief rally. Russia will be pressed to consider a cease fire and that also has the potential to spark buying. The Fed is in the “blackout” period so we will not hear from them. However, if the market senses a more dovish tone, it will rally ahead of the statement.

Trading bounces is very tricky. If we get one, stick to day trading and keep your size small.

I WOULD BE TAKING GAINS ON SWING SHORTS!!! The odds of a bounce are much higher than the odds of another leg lower in my opinion.

Longer-term swing traders should wait for a failed bounce. The next trade will come on the short side. We need to gauge the height and duration of the bounce while we wait.

Support and resistance is the range from Wednesday.

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