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This Bounce Needs To Hold
www.oneoption.com
This morning the market is gapping higher from a deep sell-off yesterday.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – In the last few weeks every market bounce has been a great entry point for shorts. It didn’t matter if the bounce came overnight or during the day. The bounce this morning will be tested. There is no reason to chase this move. If the gains are given back easily, we will have a Gap Reversal and that will set up a great opportunity to short.
I THINK THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY. HERE IS THE PATTERN I WANT TO SEE.
I want the market to pullback in the first 30 minutes of trading, but I want most of the gains preserved. That will tell me that buyers are interested. Shorts will pounce on this higher open and this is likely to be a trap. When they cover, the market will reverse sharply and it will take out the high of the day. How can I be so confident that the market is going to move higher?
This is a deeply oversold drop. That in and of itself is not a reason to expect a bounce. The reason for the drop is important. Have the tariffs taken effect? No. Are economic conditions weak? No, we are still waiting for the numbers to dive. ISM Services and ISM Manufacturing were pretty decent. The jobs report was not disastrous and initial jobless claims came in at 220K. Was there a bank failure? No. Credit concerns could mount in a recession, but we are not there yet. Did the Fed get more hawkish? No. If anything they will get more dovish and move the window up for the next rate cut after lower inflation numbers. Is the government going to shut down? No. I believe the continuing resolution is going to pass tonight. Chuck Schumer is going to vote for it and that will pave the way for other Dems to vote for it. He is worried that a shutdown will give DOGE even more power.
The odds for a deeper drop are lower than the odds of a bounce from this deeply oversold condition. Shorts will get worried that the Fed will be more dovish after the CPI/PPI and they will cover ahead of the FOMC Wednesday. VIX/VXX has spiked to a level where the market has typically bounced in the last year. We also have triple witching next week and if I look at where the most damage can be done, it is on the short side. A big bounce would destroy those traders. The rubberband has been stretched to an extreme and it is set to snap back.
I told you yesterday to be out of swing shorts and I hope you took my advice and took gains into weakness.
This bounce is not going to last more than a week or two. I will be watching for resistance at the 200-day MA. The drop was deep and swift and the selling pressure was heavy. How we get to the 200-day MA will be very telling. Trade this bounce if you are nimble. Trade smaller size and watch for the pattern I highlighted. Do not get cute and overstay your welcome. I would limit swings to overnights. Know that there could be some nasty bid checks and that you will have to weather some nasty contra moves. If you have the mettle for that, go for it.
Longer term swing traders should watch the bounce and wait for it to stall. The next big move will be down and you won’t have to wait more than a couple of weeks at most. Be patient.
Support is at $554 and I am expecting that level to hold. Resistance is at $559 and I believe we have a chance to get through that level.
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