Daily Commentary: March 18, 2024

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All Eyes Are On the FOMC

Posted by Pete Stolcers on March 18

The selling Friday was related to triple witching and those losses were erased this morning. The action will be pretty dull heading into the Fed.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – This morning the market is going to erase the losses from Friday. It was a triple witch. Could the selling have been related?

The market is still bullish, but the price action is starting to soften. The nice tight candles we saw in January are starting to loosen up. We are seeing more gaps up and down and more red candles. The price action is telling us that the upward momentum is starting to wane a little. Is this bearish? No. It just tells us that instead of being super aggressively long like we were from November – January, we need to take some risk off. We should also expect a dip in here.

I believe the market will transition in to a more normal stair-step rally where we have to “buy dips and sell rips”. On the next dip you want to sell OTM bullish put spreads on stocks with IVs over 35 and you want to buy ITM calls on stocks with IVs that are < 35 (buy 3-4 months of time). When we get the bounce and it stalls, take gains and wait to reload.

The Fed is going to be hawkish this week. There is no reason for them to cut rates and there is only a 65% chance for a rate cut in June based on the Fed Fund Futures. I believe that timeline is too early.

Any dip will be a buying opportunity. The action the next few days could be dull. Don’t sit on your hands, set alerts. I like finding strong stocks and setting LRSI alerts on an M30 and H1 basis. We want the indicator to go bearish and then bullish. When the alert triggers we want the stock price to be higher during this bearish LRSI cycle ( < .20 and then > .20) than the last one. That would represent a higher low and it would be a good buy signal. I discuss this in the video I recorded yesterday.

Overseas markets were up. Japan was strong after a good industrial production number. AI stocks will be up ahead of a conference and NVDA will speak near the close today.

Don’t chase this gap up. Let’s see what happens.

Support is $513 and resistance is $515. The action will die down Tuesday and Wednesday.

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