Daily Commentary: March 21, 2024

Auto Post1Option Commentary

Time To Pounce!

Posted by Pete Stolcers on March 21

We’ve been waiting patiently for our next window of opportunity and we have it.

PRE-OPEN MAKRET COMMENTS THURSDAY – The market ran up and it compressed for a few weeks. Buyers and sellers were largely paired off and the market digested gains while it waited for the next catalyst. Yesterday’s FOMC statement produced a positive reaction and it resulted in a new all-time high. We are seeing follow through buying this morning and this is a nice breakout.

What did the Fed say that was so great? They are seeing robust economic growth and they have raised their growth projections for this year. They still see greater upside risks for inflation so they are not going to be cutting rates any time soon. I’ve been telling you not to worry about the rate cuts. Economic growth and moderate inflation is a great backdrop for the market.

Here’s what happened. Every buyer is hoping for a dip. They were expecting a hawkish Fed statement and they got it. The market could have pulled back, but it didn’t. They were hoping for that reaction because they could have entered longs at a better price. When the reaction was positive, they knew they had to buy now.

We have been doing exactly the same. If we had a dip, we were ready to buy. If we had a breakout, we were going to buy.

Gaps up to a new relative high are often faded. Don’t chase the open. The news was not good enough to spark a “Gap and Go” right out of the gate. If we get one, most of the move will be exhausted in the first 90 minutes. By the time we confirm that this is the pattern, it will be too late. That’s OK. We will get a dip later in the day and you can buy that. A more likely scenario is a compression at the high of the day or even a small retracement. That would give us 45 minutes to find our longs and to confirm that buyers are aggressive. That is our best scenario today.

This is a good time to take swing positions. You can sell OTM bullish put spreads, but you can also buy calls on strong stocks that are breaking out. We should get follow through for a week and then it will be time to take gains.

The previous high ($518.22) is support and resistance is at $530 based on a H+ trendline.

Live Trading

Open an Account

Paper Trading