Daily Commentary: March 25, 2022

Jeremy Engelbrecht1Option Commentary

Market Bid Should Be Good For A Few Weeks – Don’t Overstay Your Welcome

Posted by Pete Stolcers on March 25

Yesterday the S&P 500 closed firmly above the 200-day MA and tech stocks were particularly strong. That bodes well for more upside today and perhaps for the next few weeks.

The issues plaguing the market (inflation, Fed tightening and the war in Ukraine) have not improved, but the initial shock of these events is starting to wane. The first rate hike by the Fed will not have much of an impact, but there is chatter that they might hike 50 basis points at the May meeting and perhaps another 50 basis points in June. This will make Asset Managers nervous as we get closer.

The economic calendar is light this week.

Covid-19 cases are still rising in China and that will hamper economic growth. It will also add to current supply disruptions as factories close. Delisting for Chinese companies is still possible and that decision could be influenced by China’s support for Russia. They also have real estate developers who are not reporting earnings and who are perilously close to default. A credit crisis in China is the biggest threat to our market. Even if that does not manifest, I feel that Chinese stocks present a good shorting opportunity. Wait for weakness in US markets for those shorts or carry a few of these shorts to hedge your longs.

Swing traders with a 2-3 week trade duration can sell out of the money bullish put spreads on strong stocks. I still believe that we will have more market volatility this summer, but we have reached a resting point. The 25 basis rate hike means little and it will not impact our economic growth. The market is paying less attention to the war in Ukraine and earnings season is approaching. That should keep buyers engaged for a few weeks. As earnings season unfolds I believe that the selling pressure will build. Earnings estimates for the year have been reduced by many analysts/institutions and guidance could be soft. As we get closer to the May FOMC meeting the selling pressure will resume. A 1% rise in interest rates this summer would keep Asset Managers on the sidelines. Take advantage of this “window” for a few weeks and return to the sidelines for longer term swing trades.

Day traders should NOT chase the opening gap higher. Look at the candles for the SPY on a daily basis. Notice how the low of the day is always in the body of the prior candle? That means you will have an opportunity to buy at a price better than the opening price. There is a chance that we see consecutive stacked green candles (20%). That would be a gap and go pattern and I will not be joining that move. I am not going to chase, I will wait for a pullback. If I do not get one during the day (very unlikely) I will not trade. I am bullish today and I do want to buy, but I will be patient. Tech stocks should continue higher and I am looking for those high volume breakouts. Novice bullish specs will rush in to buy the open now that we closed above the 200-day MA and now that tech stocks have a bid. Those weak hands can easily be flushed out – don’t be one of them. Be patient and wait for the pullback. It will help you identify relative strength. We could have some nice call lottos later in the day.

Support is at SPY $446. Resistance is at the 100-day MA.

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