Daily Commentary: March 25, 2024

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Market Setting Up For A Dull Week

Posted by Pete Stolcers on March 25

The FOMC Statement was not a catalyst and this is a holiday-shortened week.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – The market made a new all-time high after the FOMC statement last week, but it has not been able to advance. This is a sign that buyers are not very aggressive. I don’t view the price action as bearish, it is just not as bullish as it looked Thursday morning.

There aren’t any economic releases this week that will move the needle. Holidays also tend to suck the life out of the market.

When we come back next week, Q1 earnings season will be less than two weeks away. That typically attracts buyers. I’m expecting a compression near the all-time high for the next week and then we will have a chance for an upside breakout ahead of earnings season.

Keep your trading to a minimum. You can sell out of the money bullish put spreads, but be very selective. Option premiums are dirt cheap and the risk/reward is not there for most stocks.

If you are day trading, you have to find the strongest stocks that have some volume. Set alerts to buy dips. If the D1 is particularly strong, the stock might not dip for a day or two. When you get that alert, evaluate the dip. If it was brief and shallow, you will have an opportunity to make money. After you enter, set passive targets. As soon as the move stalls, take gains. Don’t chase breakouts. They will all look great and the breakout gets the stock on our radar. We don’t make money on breakouts, we make money on follow through. As soon as you get in, the breakout will fail and the stock will retrace. You will be left with lots of little losers. You don’t have to panic out of them. If you picked well, they will come back and you can scratch the trade. I know this because the market is not going anywhere. The point is that if you chase, you won’t make money. You will be hanging on to losers and trying to “scratch” them.

Support was at $520.50 and we are below that. It was the close from Wednesday. The gap has been filled. There is also support at $517, but I doubt it will be in play today. Resistance is the close from Friday ($521.30) and the all-time high.

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