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We’ve been expecting a bounce and we got one.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – What’s real and what’s fake? Was the rally last year real and was the drop this year fake? Was the drop this year real and was this bounce fake? This is the constant question asked by traders and it is the hardest puzzle piece to figure out.
The rally last year was real, but the move got over extended. How do you know that? The dips were more frequent, they were deeper and they lasted longer than at any other point during the rally. The volume during the rally was light and during a period of seasonal strength we should have seen much stronger price action. That’s why we went to cash in December.
Was the drop this year real? Yes. How do we know that? The depth and speed of the drop told us that the selling pressure was heavy. It also came on heavy volume.
Is the bounce real? No. The price action has been very choppy and the volume has been light. Most of the gains came on an overnight gap up Monday and the follow through has been meager. The market is above the 200-day MA so we will let this bounce play out. When it hits resistance we will take bearish swing positions. I would like to see the market grind a little higher on light volume and then I would like to see a bearish engulfing candle. That would come off of a gap higher and it would be a sign that sellers are back. I would prefer that we float higher for a week or so. That will give me time to find stocks with relative weakness and I will enter longer term bearish swing trades knowing that I am early and that I might take a little heat. Those stocks have been “leaking oil” even with the market floating higher so the threat of a big bounce in the stock is limited. That keeps my risk contained. When the market “cracks”, I will already have some positions on and I will be ready to add.
What don’t I want to see? I don’t want to see stacked long green intraday candles on volume that easily challenge SPY $585. That would be a sign of heavy buying and it would prompt me to reduce my short positions. I will not easily flip to bullish because of the price action the last six months. I would take some bullish day trades to offset my longer term short exposure.
As a trader you have to know where you stand. If you don’t have confidence in what is unfolding and where your future opportunities lie, you have nothing. You will second guess every trade and you have no staying power.
We have a heavy news cycle next week with lots of economic releases. Then earnings season starts a week later. Durable Goods orders were better than expected this morning (.7%) increase. It is volatile from month to month and I am not giving it much weight.
There are day trading opportunities on both sides, I happen to prefer the short side. The price action this week has been lackluster and I expect that to continue today.
Overseas markets were mixed with Asia higher and Europe lower. There is no net influence.
Support is the 200-day MA and resistance is the high from Tuesday.
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