Daily Commentary: May 01, 2024

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Fed-Day – This One Will Matter

Posted by Pete Stolcers on May 01

We can expect dull trading ahead of the FOMC statement. The market wants to know that the Fed will backstop any decline in economic growth.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FED-DAY – I will be conducting a Live Event Today before the FOMC statement. This Fed statement will matter.

Economic growth is starting to falter and we saw a substantial Q/Q decline in GDP last week. As long as economic growth was strong, the market was willing to give the Fed a “free pass”. Now that conditions are starting to soften, they want to hear dovish comments. The US has been the global growth engine and Europe and Asia have been weak. The sentiment has instantly changed to… “the Fed waited too long”.

Earnings reactions have been soft as well. Mega cap tech stocks have been retreating so these releases have been a drag on the market. AMZN was up slightly overnight. AAPL will report after the close Thursday.

The jobs report is Friday.

If the SPY can close above the 50-day MA today, I will hold on to bullish swing positions. We only have starter positions on. If the SPY can’t rally above that level and if the reaction is weak, I will exit starter bullish positions. That reaction will be a clear sign that the Fed is still hawkish.

Keep your trading light ahead of the Fed. Today is a banking holiday in Europe as well.

Support is at the 100-day MA and resistance is at the 50-day MA.

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