© Copyright 2025 eOption, a division of Regal Securities, Inc., Member
FINRA/
SIPC |
Important Disclosures
950 Milwaukee Ave., Ste. 102 | Glenview, IL 60025
The information on this web site is for discussion and information purposes only. All accounts accepted at the discretion of eOption which accepts customer orders only on an unsolicited basis, and does not make any recommendations regarding any security or securities product with the possible exception of orders executed by our full service bond desk. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any security or securities product. Online trading has inherent risks due to loss of online services or delays from system performance, risk parameters, market conditions, and erroneous or unavailable market data.
FINRA BrokerCheck reports for Regal Securities and its investment professionals are available at www.finra.org/brokercheck.
Options Disclosure: Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading options, you must be approved for options trading and read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. A copy may also be requested via email at support@eoption.com or via mail to eOption, 950 Milwaukee Ave., Ste. 102, Glenview, IL 60025. Online trading has inherent risks due to loss of online services or delays from system performance, risk parameters, market conditions, and erroneous or unavailable market data.
eOption Commissions: Broker-assisted orders are an additional $15. Option strategies involve multiple purchases; therefore your transaction costs may be significant for option strategy trades. A commission rate of $2.00 for equities and $3.99 + $.10/contract for options, per execution, applies to orders entered and filled by eOption's Auto Trade Desk and does not apply to customers who enter their trades directly into the eOption platform and are not utilizing the Auto Trade desk.
Broker Comparison: The competitor rates from published websites were verified on 05/25/2023 and are believed to be accurate, but not guaranteed. Commissions are subject to change without notice. At some firms, commissions may not reflect broker-assisted fees, orders over 1,000 shares, penny stock trades, OTCBB, pink sheet stocks or foreign stock orders. Firms may offer reduced commissions if additional criteria are met.
Blog & Commentary: eOption is neither affiliated with, sponsored by, nor endorses commentary and the opinions expressed are solely their own. Content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and eOption cannot attest to its accuracy or completeness. No information provided has been endorsed by eOption.com and does not constitute a recommendation by eOption to buy or sell a particular investment. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions, and eOption makes no investment recommendations and does not provide financial, tax or legal advice.
Employment Remains Strong
www.oneoption.com
This morning the jobs report reported that 177K new jobs were created in April and that was better than expected.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – Overnight we got two major earnings announcements, a sign that China might be ready to negotiate a trade deal and a better than expected employment report. The S&P 500 is adding to recent gains.
All of the fear surrounding tariffs was completely overblown. Earnings remain strong and the economy is not falling apart. This is the prevailing thought right now and traders are buying this dip.
From a fundamental perspective there are some flaws with this line of thinking. The tariffs have barely started and the vast majority of Q1 earnings happened before they were implemented. The 10% base will start kicking in and there will be increases in coming months as trade deals are negotiated. Yes, the negotiated rate will be higher than 10%, not lower. Trump will remind those who delay that the clock to get a deal done is ticking. In 60 days the reciprocal component will kick in to the original rate. The other issue is that the tariffs were not the bigger issue. Global growth has been slowing for the last year and it will gradually make its way to the US.
The jobs report remains strong, but government employees who have taken the severance package won’t show in the numbers. These cuts are coming and instead of federal employees being a source of job growth, they will be a source of job losses.
Any further explanation of why I am still bearish will sound like I am justifying my short positions so I am going to stop here. FYI, my exposure is light.
From a technical standpoint, the volume during the market drop was heavy and the volume during the market bounce has been light. That tells you that this bounce is not packing a lot of punch. The smart money is focused on the macro backdrop and not the tariff headlines.
Bounces during the initial stages of a trend reversal tend to be very tall. You can go back and check the ones from 2022.
From a swing trading standpoint, I am patiently waiting for signs that this rally is hitting resistance. The danger for most traders is that they might have felt very bearish a few weeks ago and they were patiently waiting for this bounce to stall. It has not stalled and now it has moved through resistance levels with ease. Their mentality has shifted from one of patiently waiting for a set up to one of missed opportunity. They have enough technical proof and they are ready to fully embrace this rally. Just as they start to build long positions, the rug will be pulled out. Don’t fall into this trap. The short side is the right side, but it could take another month to set up.
From a day trading standpoint, you are a short term trader. You have the flexibility to take advantage of intraday price movement and you are ready to trade either side at any moment. I would be careful not to chase this move higher. A gap and go after a big run is a low probability set up. If the market charges higher, be ready to let it go without you. There will be a pullback to get long later today. Any pullback early in the day will provide us with an opportunity to gauge the selling pressure and to find the best stocks. That is our best set up. Be patient. Yesterday was a classic example of a gap up that gave you a better entry point later in the day.
Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is at the 100-day MA.
Content is provided by OneOption, LLC, which has no affiliation with Regal Securities, Inc. (“Regal”) This commentary is provided for information purposes only, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation by Regal to buy or sell securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Regal has not participated in the creation of the OneOption content and does not directly or indirectly endorse the content. Any reliance on this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.