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Wait and Watch
www.oneoption.com
The market has bounced from its low to major resistance areas. Let’s see if they hold.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – In the last two weeks earnings reactions and better than feared economic releases have fueled the market bounce. Tariffs have not impacted Q1 earnings because the 10% baseline was just imposed. The jobs report was good, but we saw a rise in initial jobless claims last week and ADP reported a soft private payroll number. GDP dropped into negative territory (-.3%) and the market dismissed that news.
Companies imported as much as they could to front run the tariffs and that inventory needs to be worked off. That means that production is declining and that the recent data points have temporarily been inflated. This is going to take time to flow through the economy.
Wednesday the FOMC Statement will be released. The Fed has been hawkish. Their dual mandate is full employment and stable prices. The jobs report was good and inflation has been subsiding. I believe that they will maintain a relatively hawkish stance that leaves the door open for a 25 basis point rate cut in June (expected).
Given what I’ve seen technically this year and given the global economic and political backdrop, I am bearish. I want to see resistance hold at the 200-day MA and I do not want to spend more than a week above it (if we do rally above it). I want to see selling pressure in the next two weeks and a rejection from this resistance level. The bounce has come on light volume and the level of conviction is low.
Swing traders should wait patiently to see what the market does at major resistance. If this bounce loses its momentum a good shorting opportunity will surface. That is my focus.
Day traders should expect that the action is going to die down Tuesday and Wednesday before the Fed. Today we could see some position squaring and good movement. Overseas markets were mixed so there is not a lot of impetus on the downside. The news was also light. I am expecting a bounce this morning. If it is wimpy, a short will set up. If the bounce has stacked long candles right into the gap, there could be some day trading longs. Stay flexible. I won’t have a sense of direction until I see the price action for an hour.
Support is at the low from Friday and resistance is at the high from Friday.
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