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Signs of Resistance
www.oneoption.com
The market has bounced to a key resistance level and I will be watching for signs of strain.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The market bounced from deeply oversold conditions the last two weeks and it has reached a critical price point at the 200-day MA. The decline this year was over-extended and now the bounce is over-extended. I have been bearish and I have patiently waiting for my entry point for swing shorts. I sense the time is near, but I need technical confirmation.
Early in the year the concern was that tariffs would squash economic growth. Investors sold stocks as the rhetoric heated up. The tone softened temporarily and the market rallied. Earnings were good and economic data points were better than feared. That’s because the tariffs had not been implemented. If anything, the tariffs pushed demand forward because companies wanted to front run them by importing as much as they could and consumers wanted to purchase before prices went up.
We’ve seen early signs that the economy is softening (GDP and ADP). The inventory buildup will take time to work off and that is going to impact economic readings that we see next month. Shipping volumes in and out of the country have decreased dramatically and those are the headlines we will read in coming weeks.
The bigger issue is that global economic conditions have been declining at a gradual pace for a year. China is in dire straights and it has been the growth engine for decades. That lead to massive excess (real estate market and production). That growth cycle has run it’s course and the contraction cycle has started. Where is growth going to come from when credit levels are stretched to the limit globally?
Now that mega cap tech companies have announced earnings, I believe short sellers will be more aggressive. Yesterday PLTR reported earnings and the stock is down considerably this morning. It is weighing on the market.
The FOMC statement will be released tomorrow. A 25 basis point rate cut is price in for June. The Fed has stated that they are content with current policy and I don’t believe they will give a timeline for the second rate cut this year. Job growth last month was good and inflation has been declining.
I am seeing signs of resistance just below the 200-day MA. The volume during the last stretch of the bounce has been light and I am going to start taking longer term bearish swing trades. I’m not guessing what the Fed reaction will be, I just want to have some longer term shorts on. If the reaction is bullish, I am prepared to take a little heat. I know that trade deals could push the market higher, but I feel those moves will be temporary. The 10% tariff base will remain and there will be retaliatory tariffs and conditions (buy oil from the US, ease regulations on US products). A budget deal could also be an upside catalyst because it will include tax cuts.
If the market has the potential to move higher, why not wait to see how that plays out? I am waiting, that’s why I am only taking longer term starter short positions. My risk will be limited. I don’t know when the selling pressure will resume, only that it will. I want to have some exposure because my analysis is telling me to be bearish. You will never pick the perfect entry point. That’s why we scale in. If the position is performing, we can add to it knowing that our average cost is higher than the current price.
For swing trades, I will consider taking some shorts today.
Day traders should expect some follow through selling today and I would favor the short side. Why? Yesterday you told us that the market was going to bounce… and it did. The gap down tested the bid and buyers were marginally interested. The bounce was tenuous and the market easily moved lower once the gap was filled. That was a wimpy bounce. The price action is soft and sellers will be more aggressive today. Our best set up is a wimpy bounce into the gap. That will attract bullish speculators. It will also give us time to find stocks with relative weakness. That higher level will also give us a better entry point and when the bullish speculators get flushed out, it will fuel the move lower.
We are in pre-Fed mode so do not expect big sustained moves today. This is the calm before the storm.
Support is the low from Monday ($557.80) and resistance is the low from yesterday ($561.70)
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