Daily Commentary: May 08, 2024

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Market Needs Follow Through

Posted by Pete Stolcers on May 08

The breakout above the 50-day MA is meaningless without follow through. We need to see that by the end of the week.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – We have the SPY breakout through AVWAPQ and the 50-day MA, but the move came on light volume.

Earnings season has climaxed, major economic releases are behind us and the FOMC statement has been digested. The market lacks a catalyst and the price action has been “patchy”. We have some long starter positions on and we were able to add on this breakout. I would not be adding to bullish swings at this time.

This is bounce is NOT the rally that we had from November through March. The momentum has waned and so have economic conditions in the last month. This bounce above the 100-day MA has come on light volume and we have not stacked any green candles. Without upside follow through the rest of this week and a close above $517, this bounce could just as easily form a double top lower high.

The bounce is based on the notion that the Fed will move the easing timeline forward. GDP, ISM services and the Unemployment Report all came in “light”. There will be concerns that the Fed has been “too hawkish” and that they waited too long to ease. If we get another series of weak economic data points, the market will drop and Asset Managers will take risk off. This backdrop is not nearly as bullish as one where “higher for longer” was justified due to strong economic growth.

Given the changes in the last month, I am just trading the bounce and I am staying very flexible with swing trades. The price action is not nearly as strong as it was, so I have tempered my bullishness. I am ready to exit longs at a moment’s notice if a “double top” forms.

From a day trading perspective, I feel that you can trade in either direction. We are seeing some weakness this morning. Europe was up slightly and Asia was fairly weak. From a bullish standpoint, we want to see this early gap down gobbled up. Nice long stacked green candles back into the middle of the overnight gap would signal that buyers are anxious. I do NOT believe we are going to see that. The breakout from earlier in the week will be tested. I would wait to see if the first 1OP bearish cycle produces follow through selling.

Support is $513.75. That is the opening price from Monday. We do NOT want to come anywhere close to it. Resistance is the low from Tuesday.

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