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The Market Is Trapped
www.oneoption.com
Major news the last two weeks has not sparked a move either way.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – The daily chart of the SPY tell us all we need to know. After a heavy news cycle (mega cap tech earnings, the jobs report and the FOMC statement) the market has not budged. These potential catalysts did not produce and the market is waiting for the next driver. In the last week we have seen compressed intraday ranges that have resulted in dojis on the daily chart. If the recent round of news didn’t generate a breakout/breakdown, I doubt that anything will move the needle the rest of the month.
“Pete, we’re only a week into May.” I know and it pains me to deliver this forecast. That’s what I see. Earnings season is winding down and the economic releases are minor next week. Two weeks out we start getting into pre-holiday mode.
The market is sitting right below a major resistance level. Horizontal resistance, the 200-day MA and the 100-day MA are all within striking distance. Yesterday the market got close to challenging the 200-day MA after a trade deal with the UK. That move was smacked down late in the session and resistance was confirmed.
Are trade deals going to surprise the market? No, they are expected. Many trade deals will be signed in the next two weeks. Today, Bessent will meet with Chinese leaders. They are standing up to the US and they will ask for concessions before they start serious talks. It’s possible that tariffs are lowered to 80% or less this weekend. Trump will save face by saying that the negotiations have started and China will save face because the US showed “good will”. At that level, the tariffs are still a boycott of Chinese goods and it will cause supply disruptions.
Are trade deals going to spark US economic growth? No, global growth is slowing and demand has been declining. Trade deals will help US products compete internationally, but consumption is slowing down and that is the big problem. Inventories have been built up and demand has been pushed forward in an attempt to front run the tariffs. That supply has to be worked off and we are going to see signs of domestic economic weakness in coming months.
From a swing trading standpoint I am comfortable owning a few long term bearish swings. I am not in a hurry to take positions. The longer the market sits here, the cheaper put options get.
From a day trading standpoint, I like waiting for the first move to run it’s course. If it is wimpy, I am looking to fade it. If it is strong, I will look for a pullback to join it. The market has closed right where it started the day in the last week and I believe that pattern will continue today. We do have plenty of Fed speak today, but the statement didn’t change much.
This is likely to be an inside day and support and resistance are yesterday’s low and high respectively.
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