Daily Commentary: May 10, 2024

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We Have Market Confirmation

Posted by Pete Stolcers on May 10

The market got through the high of the week and that is the confirmation we needed. Now the market is within striking distance of the all-time high.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – We got a warning on April 4th and the market served up a giant bearish engulfing candle on heavy volume. We expected volatility so we took gains on longer-term swing longs and we went to hand-to-hand combat (day trading). We new a dip was likely and our goal was to evaluate the depth, speed and duration of it. The dip was fairly shallow and we were able to short gaps up that reversed. We did not want to get more aggressive than that because this was a normal pullback in a bull market. We were going to get a bounce and we did not want to get trapped in a “snap back” rally.

The market found support above the 100-day MA. We took starter long positions and we evaluated the bounce. It started slowly and there were plenty of “bid checks”. The market moved off of that support and there were a series of higher lows. We needed a breakout above the 50-day MA and we got it. We added to our swing longs this week, but we needed follow through buying. Yesterday, the market made a new high for the week and we got it.

Economic conditions are slowing down. That means we need to use greater caution. A bad economic report or a “hot” inflation reading could spell trouble since the Fed is still fairly cautious. Next week we will get the CPI and PPI. A hot reading will keep the Fed sidelined and a low reading could give them room to ease.

I would not add to longs until we get that news. If the market breaks out to a new all-time high on heavy volume, we will add to our swing longs. If the market closes below the 50-day MA, we will take gains on our swing longs. The bounce was a little deeper than we would like to see and the rebound has not been as strong as we would like to see. It has also come on light volume. That means we are cautiously long and we are constantly looking for confirmation.

In the last month you’ve seen bearish headlines and forecasts. You need to ignore them and you need to rely on price action. My daily comments gave you the roadmap on how to trade this pattern and I explained exactly what I was looking for the entire way.

Near the all-time high I took crap from perma bulls who stuck with longs and who took a beating. Near the 100-day MA I took crap from bears who were looking for a correction. They are also taking a beating. I don’t know who the #$%^ these people are, but they all sound like experts. You need to tune this noise out.

The market doesn’t travel in a straight line. It ebbs and flows and the last month has been a lesson on how to navigate the race track.

Overseas markets were fairly strong and that sets a good backdrop this morning. Wait for a dip and confirm support. Favor the long side.

Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is at the all-time high.

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