Daily Commentary: May 15, 2024

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Inflation Slowing – Don’t Chase This Gap Up

Posted by Pete Stolcers on May 15

The S&P 500 traded to a new all-time high after the CPI was released. Be careful.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – We expected a big market rally in November and we rode that move hard through March. The market momentum waned and we took gains on long swing trades. The rally from November through March featured stacked green candles on heavy volume and there were not any dips. A trend with this strength was not going to die easily. On April 4th we had a massive gap reversal off of the all-time high. The volume was extremely heavy and this was a warning sign. This was a time to shift to day trading. Buyers and sellers were paired off and we were going to see some volatility. If we got a market dip, we needed to gauge the depth and duration of the move. If we were going to short intraday, we had to take day trades. It was way too risky to short against such a powerful up trend overnight. We got gaps up that reversed and the market pulled back to the 100-day MA. We knew that there would be a bounce, we just had to wait for support. If the dip was brief and shallow, the bounce would be strong.

The market found support above the 100-day MA. That was a sign that buyers did not feel we would get down to that level. They were buying before we got there. We had retracement early in the bounce and higher lows formed. That is when we took starter long positions on a swing basis. We needed follow through on the bounce. Last week we broke through the 50-day MA and AVWAPQ. That breakout happened in a matter of days and that is what we needed. It was a sign that buyers were aggressive. If it had taken longer to breakout, it would have been a sign that the selling pressure was heavy. On that breakout, we added to our long swing positions. The market continued to drift higher and we were within striking distance of the all-time high.

This morning the CPI came in slightly lighter than expected. The market made a new all-time high before the open. DO NOT CHASE THIS GAP UP!

Remember April 4th? That was a gap up to a new all-time high and the S&P 500 reversed 120 points. That move did not come until later in the day. Even if we start to grind higher early in the day, don’t get overly confident. Gap and go patterns are our riskiest set-up. The volume during the bounce that started a month ago came on light volume. That is a sign that the conviction is low. We also have signs that economic conditions are starting to deteriorate. Yesterday Powell was hawkish so the Fed is not ready to ease.

If we get a gap reversal today and we close on the low of the day, I would start reducing long exposure on swing trades. That would be a sign of resistance.

If the market closes at a new all-time high today, we will add to swing long positions. We need to see follow through buying in the next week to stay with those positions. Any smack down and close below SPY $526 would be a warning sign. I believe we are going to move higher and I will be looking for the momentum on the breakout to stall. A gradual drift higher is very likely. When I see tiny bodied compressed candles at a new all-time high, we will take gains.

Notice that all of my analysis is based on price action. If I traded the headlines or what I “thought”, I would have been short and I would have been wrong. When I realized that I don’t know shit, I took my trading to new heights. Don’t listen to the analysts. They don’t know shit either.

Price is truth. Be careful and watch for a possible gap reversal today. We have to close strong and we have to close at a new all-time high for me to add to swing trades.

Support is the low from Tuesday and resistance is the all-time high.

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