Daily Commentary: May 20, 2025

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Buyers Are Still In Control

Posted by Pete Stolcers on May 20
www.oneoption.com

Yesterday the market gapped lower on the Moody’s downgrade of US Treasuries and it bounced right back.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Yesterday the market tested the bid and the drop was instantly gobbled up. That is a sign that buyers are motivated and the losses were erased in the first half of the day. The Moody’s downgrade itself wasn’t that significant, but if sellers wanted to flush out bullish speculators, that was their chance. The bond ratings agencies lost all credibility during the 2008 financial crisis.

US Treasuries broke key horizontal support yesterday and they rallied back. That is significant. Keep an eye on bonds this week. The Atlanta Federal Reserve President (Bostic) said that he only sees one rate cut in 2025 and at the start of the year 2-3 rate cuts were expected.

Congress is not in session next week so they have five days to pass a bill. Without all Republicans supporting the bill, it won’t pass. There is a big push to get it done this week. I view this as a potential upside catalyst.

Home Depot said that it is going to “eat” the tariff costs. That is going to reduce profits and if other companies follow suit, it will impact the market. Stock valuations are lofty at current levels. Jaime Dimon (JPM) warned that the market is too complacent about the tariff impacts.

The battle lines are drawn and bulls and bears are going to battle this out as they have been doing all year.

I’m comfortable day trading. There are good opportunities on both sides and there is good intraday price movement. Monday is a legal holiday and the economic news is light this week. The volume will start to decline as the weekend approaches and Tuesday is also likely to be a quiet day.

Overseas markets were fairly strong. The price action yesterday was bullish. The market is opening lower. The best scenario today is a wimpy decline with mixed overlapping candles. Once that move finds support, it will set up a good buying opportunity. Long red candles during the early move lower would be a warning sign to remain patient. Instead of only waiting an hour for support, you might have to wait for a few hours.

Support is VWAP from yesterday and we are testing it now. Resistance is the high from yesterday.

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