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Breakout Retest
www.oneoption.com
The market is likely to retest the 100-day MA in the next week.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – The market broke through resistance and it has been able to advance. It would be unusual for the market to advance without testing that breakout. That move will tell me if buyers are still engaged or if this breakout was simply mechanical.
Republicans are scrambling to get support for the budget bill ahead of the weekend and Congress is not in session next week. Once it passes the House, it will have to get through the Senate in June. This is a potentially bullish event, but it could largely be priced in.
The big breakout on the China deal forced shorts to cover and I believe that takes away some potential “lift” if the market moves higher.
We are in pre-holiday mode and the news is light this week and next week. NVDA reports on 5/28 and that is the next large news event.
With each passing week, I believe the news will get heavier. Japan’s top trade negotiator said that tariffs need to be removed before they continue to talk. They are not rushing into a bad trade deal just because of a deadline. They hold over $1T in US debt and they could start selling US Treasuries if they feel disrespected.
If other trading partners take notice, they will start to dig their heels in as well. The initial theory was that the US would sign a deal with India and that would force others to fall into line. We haven’t heard of any new trade deals and the clock is ticking. We are half way through the 90-day period.
Walmart and Home Depot mentioned that higher prices are coming. Target reinforced that this morning. Regardless of any trade deal announcements, this is coming. The Fed is hawkish and Bostic said they might only cut rates once this year (2-3 were expected in January).
This morning US Treasuries are falling (yields rising). The US has $9T worth of debt to roll over and if you piss the world off with trade policies, the demand for our bonds will decline. The Moody’s downgrade doesn’t help.
The global backdrop was deteriorating in December and that was my greatest market concern. The tariff news took us for a wild ride, but the concerns I had at the beginning of the year are manifesting.
I am not taking any swing trades until I see a retest. I don’t trust this bounce and I need proof that this was more than mechanical.
From a day trading perspective there are opportunities on both sides. Wait for the first move and use it as your guide. If it is strong, wait for a pause or a pullback to join. If it is wimpy, look to fade it. Overseas markets were mixed. The volume will drop as we get closer to the weekend and Tuesday is likely to be a slow day as well.
Support is at $588 and $585. Resistance is at the high $595.50.
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