Daily Commentary: November 04, 2024

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The News Doesn’t Get Any Bigger

Posted by Pete Stolcers on November 04
www.oneoption.com

Traders and Asset Managers are waiting for the outcome.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – Last week the market digested a slew of economic data and earnings announcements. The reaction was slightly negative and the market is sitting right where it was three months ago.

From a valuation standpoint, stocks are more attractive than they were a quarter ago. The results were good and we have an extra 90 days of profits with the stocks at the same price. That said, from a forward P/E standpoint, stocks are not cheap.

Since the 50 basis point Fed rate cut, analysts have been looking for signs of economic weakness. That was a pretty dramatic rate cut and it raised some eyebrows. The jobs report on Friday was soft. If we add back 100K temporary job losses (hurricanes and strikes), the number was still pretty soft. Furthermore, 112K jobs were removed from the previous two months. The final blow came when hourly wages increased by .4%. That is the largest input cost for manufacturers and it is inflationary.

This Thursday the FOMC Statement will be released and we can gauge if the Fed is concerned more about economic growth (dovish) or inflation (hawkish). I am not a fan of Fed easing due to economic deceleration. That is a very slippery slope.

The election Tuesday will also have an impact. The policies won’t take effect for many months. Whichever candidate wins, they will have to raise the debt ceiling by December. Depending on who controls the House and Senate, that could be a real battle.

The cross currents are very stiff. There aren’t any clues from a technical perspective since the market is right where it was three months ago. Seasonal strength (year end rally) and a post-election relief rally (less uncertainty) could fuel a move higher, but that’s not much to lean on.

From a swing trading standpoint I would keep overnight risk to a bare minimum. If the market had challenged the all-time high last week, I could have made an argument for holding starter swings. We don’t have that cushion so its best to be sidelined.

From a day trading standpoint expect LPTE the next two days.

Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is AVWAPQ.

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