Daily Commentary: November 12, 2024

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Dips Will Be Brief and Shallow

Posted by Pete Stolcers on November 12
www.oneoption.com

Year-end strength is going to fuel this rally.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Yesterday the market gapped up and it spent most of the day retracing. It finished right where it closed Friday. The banks were closed in observance of Veteran’s Day so we expected lackluster trading.

Overseas markets were generally weak so I would be careful on the open this morning. After a nice move higher, we can expect some profit taking. We need that to play out and we will evaluate the move. Mixed overlapping candles and a light volume move are what we want. That is a sign that buyers are engaged. We don’t want to see long red candles and heavy volume. That would be a sign of heavy selling. When support has formed we want to see a nice tall bounce. I would prefer many sequential smaller green candles to one or two long ones. Many “greens” are a sign of persistent buying. One or two long candles could just be programs trying to squeeze shorts. We also want the bounces to easily test VWAP.

Our best case scenario is a gap down. “If you have to swallow a frog… do it fast.” We want to get the bid check out of the way early in the day. That would give the market the rest of the day to recover and to grind higher.

Our worst case scenario is a gap up. At a new all-time high, those moves have a good chance of reversing and bearish trend days often result as the momentum builds. If you have overnight longs, it is always good to take gains very early. You will have a chance to re-enter later in the day.

I like the market and I like trading from the long side on both a longer-term and shorter-term basis. You should be long at lower levels with a starter swing and an add. Your average cost is lower than the current price so you have some cushion. Once the bid check has run its course (one week?), the bid will build and the market will be ready for another leg higher.

Wednesday we have CPI. I am not looking for a “hot” number, but it could be a small speedbump. PPI is on Thursday and Retail Sales is on Friday. This is a pretty light news week.

Be careful with day trades early today. Let’s see if the market can fend off weakness overseas.

Support is at $597 and resistance is at $600.

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