Daily Commentary: November 12, 2025

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Gradual Float Higher Likely

Posted by Pete Stolcers on November 12
www.oneoption.com

The government is likely to reopen this weekend.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – In the last two week’s we’ve seen some nervous jitters due to the shutdown and a little profit taking after the Fed rate cut. This was just a normal dip in a bullish trend and I’ve tried to encourage you to take longer-term bullish swing trades the last few days.

The market is likely to float higher on light volume and the news cycle is light. We don’t have any economic data points because of the shutdown. I believe that the employment data will be weak when it does come out, but we are weeks away from that.

If jobs decline, the shutdown will be blamed. That might be a contributing factor, but job growth has been declining all year. Fear not, the Fed will rescue us and cut rates. The trade deals have largely been forged and that might also settle nerves.

The macro backdrop is NOT good and I am aware of that. I feel that the odds of something really nasty happening between now and year end are slim. I am expecting a grind back to $690 and perhaps even a new high at $700. That sounds like a big move, but it’s only 2.5%. That means there will be lots of choppy action along the way with light volume days.

I like selling premium and if you are fairly confident, you can go closer to the money with your naked put writes. Day trading will be day-to-day. Wait for dips on gaps up and be ready to jump into action on gaps down. Along the way we will see sector rotation like yesterday. Get on these moves early, but don’t expect follow through the next day. One day a group will be hot and the next day it will be cold.

Support is at $682 and resistance is at $686.

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