Daily Commentary: November 14, 2024

Auto Post1Option Commentary

Market Is Digesting Gains

Posted by Pete Stolcers on November 14
www.oneoption.com

After a nice rally to a new all-time high, the market is taking a rest.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Earnings have been good, economic growth is stable, inflation is tame, the election results are known, the Fed is dovish and we are in a period of seasonal strength. As far as I am concerned, everything looks good. A light news cycle favors the current trend.

The market ran up 5% in a week after the election. That is a big fast move and that is going to attract a little profit taking. Asset Managers are not going to chase. They will make sure that this move holds and if they do not see any retracement, they will start bidding more aggressively. This supply of stock needs to be worked off and with each passing week, Asset Managers will have more information.

Yesterday the CPI was inline and this morning PPI was inline. Those were two potential “speedbumps” and they failed to spark selling. This morning initial jobless claims were low (217K). After the weak jobs report last month, this week’s reading should ease concerns.

Longer-term swing traders should have a starter position from a month ago and one add last week. We are letting this compression run it’s course. A dip would be fine because we want to gauge the depth and duration. Ideally, its just a single bad day that is immediately reversed. That would tell us that buyers are still engaged and that it is just a matter of time until we make another all-time high. If the move is more organized and if it lasts a few days, that is a little more concerning since it is a sign of profit taking. Any move down to $586 (prior high) is perfectly normal, but we don’t want to go much below that.

Day traders should expect another day similar to yesterday. Overseas markets were generally up, China was the exception. That gives us a slight tailwind. Resistance at SPY $600 is pretty stiff. We will need news or the passage of time to get us through. I am not expecting that today. This is a flat open and the price action will be choppy. Our best scenario would be an early dip that instantly finds support. Then we can buy. Make sure to take gains near $600.

Support is at $594 and resistance is at $600.

Live Trading

Open an Account

Paper Trading

Register