Daily Commentary: November 15, 2024

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Powell Splashes A Little Cold Water

Posted by Pete Stolcers on November 15
www.oneoption.com

Yesterday the Fed Chairman suggested that the Fed is not in a hurry to lower rates.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – The market has been digesting recent gains and the price action has been compressed this week. The inflation numbers have been inline (CPI and PPI) and initial jobless claims were good (217K). Retail sales were better than expected this morning (.4%). There hasn’t been a catalyst until Powell’s statement yesterday. Economic growth is solid and the Fed does not feel they need to rush interest rate cuts.

As I’ve been mentioning this week, Asset Managers are not going to chase an all-time high. They will wait for the gains to be digested. As time passes, there might be a news release that sparks a little selling. They will assess the level of profit taking and they will buy dips once support is established. That’s exactly what we should be doing.

Economic growth is good, inflation is tame, job growth is intact (strikes and storms have ended), earnings season is excellent, the Fed is relatively “dovish” and we are in a period of seasonal strength. As far as I’m concerned, the long-term trend will remain intact and the Fed has the latitude to ease… if they want. This is a good backdrop. Yes, President elect Trump will spark some volatility, but I believe that will be more pronounced in 2025 when he takes office.

The first support level is at $589.20. That is the post-election gap higher. If that support fails we will fill the gap and test $586. That is the previous all-time high and I believe that will hold. The selling pressure yesterday was not very well organized, but the overnight move lower has been steady. Overnight markets were generally soft so there is a headwind.

From a swing trading standpoint, we have a starter position on at lower levels and we added another leg around this level. I would stick with those positions and I would watch for support at the levels I’ve outlined. If we get a nice bounce in the next day or two, it will be a sign that buyers are still engaged and we can consider adding. I have a rule that has served me very well in the last two decades. “Never swing trade from the short side the last two months of the year. You don’t have to be long (cash), but don’t be short.

From a day trading standpoint I would be very patient with longs today. There’s a good chance that we will see selling the first couple of hours and it could last most of the day. The exception would be a couple of long green candles right on the open that erase most of the overnight gap (unlikely). That would be a sign that buyers are going to scoop this dip and we might be able to buy if that move holds an hour into trading. We are going to probe for support.

Support is at SPY $589.20 and resistance is at the close from yesterday.

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