Daily Commentary: November 25, 2024

Auto Post1Option Commentary

Market Will Test the All-time High

Posted by Pete Stolcers on November 25
www.oneoption.com

We’ve been expecting this!

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – The gap up this morning is what we’ve been expecting. We are long a starter swing from two months ago and we added once a few weeks ago. Last week we added to swings again. Hopefully you sold some bullish put spreads as I suggested. We’ve had a couple of brief, shallow dips along the way and those are normal pullbacks in a bullish trend. The nature of those dips confirms the strength of the trend. We have a solid economy, earnings are strong, the Fed can ease if they want to and this is a period of seasonal strength. The news is light and we are heading into a holiday. That favors the current trend.

We’ve been waiting for a dip and we got one. It did what we expected so we added. If you didn’t add, you need to ask yourself why. This is a problem you need to resolve. Today you will be pissed at yourself and you will be tempted to plow into this move. Don’t do that. You will be trading out of anger and FOMO. You won’t have the staying power you need and your emotions are out of whack. Learn the lesson and catch the next set-up.

There’s a reason I have not posted any shorts in the chat room, in my videos and in the live events for almost 3 months. I know how aspiring traders think. If I start highlighting shorts, you will lose your focus and you will get “twisted”. Your entire thought process should be squarely focused on staying long and buying dips. Forget the little side show of shorting this little blip lower. There was some day trading money to be made there, but that distraction pulled you away from stocks that were making a new relative high when the market was going through a normal round of profit taking. If you were scaling into those longs, you are going to make a hell of a lot more money on them than you would have on those shorts. Congratulations! Today is going to be a great day for you and you will have the wind at your back.

Gaps up to a new all-time high can produce gap reversals. I didn’t see any news to justify the move higher. Support was tested last week and it was confirmed. That will attract some dip buyers. During that pullback some speculators got short and those “lambs” will be lead to “slaughter”. When they cover they will fuel the move. The news is light this week so there is nothing to spark heavy selling. The market will float higher on light volume and we are likely to see overnight gaps up. The bid will be tested and then the price action will compress intraday. It will be very hard to make money day trading. This is what I call a “sellers boycott”. It is not a strong, powerful move, but there is money to be made on overnight swings.

If this is going to be a gap reversal, we will know in the first few candles. If they are red and long, the risk is high. I wouldn’t mess with your swing trades. The only exception would be a massive bearish engulfing candle on heavy volume today. That is very unlikely (10%). The more of the gap we fill, the longer we have to wait. If we get through the first hour and the low of the day is intact, the market will float higher. Day trade from the long side.

Support is the close from Friday and resistance is the all-time high.

Live Trading

Open an Account

Paper Trading

Register