Daily Commentary: November 26, 2024

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Market Navigates Rough Seas

Posted by Pete Stolcers on November 26
www.oneoption.com

The Trump era is about to start and the rhetoric will ramp up.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS – TUESDAY. President elect Trump is rattling his sabers. He mentioned that Chinese tariffs will increase by 10% when he takes office. That’s probably a welcome relief for Xi because they were bracing for 20% tariffs. The shocker came when he announced 25% tariffs on our largest trading partners (Canada and Mexico). That sent the S&P 500 futures down 30 points overnight and they have since recovered. If you started trading after 2020, you are going to learn how to trade under volatile conditions. during the first six months of 2025, Trump will implement his policies and the market will adjust to them.

“OMG, how am I supposed to trade this crap?” You will ask yourself that question in the next six months. Trump = uncertainty and the market does not like uncertainty. In time, the market will become numb to the clamor and it will settle in. For now, he’s not in office so the market will have a knee jerk reaction and then it will recover. The fundamental and technical backdrop is good and we are in a period of seasonal strength. That is what the market will focus on.

Yesterday the SPY opened at a new all-time high and we had a gap reversal. That is common off of an open at the all-time high. The market did not continue to decline after it filled the gap, it bounced. We closed above the prior close and above the prior day’s high. That is bullish. It has also cleared the path to the all-time high a second time. Now it will be easier for it to pass through those price points.

Overseas markets were down marginally. Some of that could have been tariff related. This is not a stiff headwind, but it will be an influence early. I would expect an early bid check given the overnight action. I would like to see a higher low vs the low from yesterday. If I see an early dip and an instant bounce, I would favor the long side. This is going to be a flat open ahead of a holiday. Expect lackluster trading.

Support is the low from yesterday and resistance is at the high. This is likely to be an “inside day” with an upward bias. I still like being long on a swing basis into year end.

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