Daily Commentary: November 26, 2025

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The Rally Has Stalled

Posted by Pete Stolcers on November 26
www.oneoption.com

Since triple witching in September the market has not moved.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – During the last quarter, two rate cuts and earnings releases have produced a 2% gain. Since the beginning of the year, the market is up 14% and those are excellent returns. Forward P/Es are “rich” and buyers and sellers are paired off.

The market tested the 100-day MA and it flew off of it this week. That is the type of price action bulls want to see, but I would not read too much into it. The drop and bounce were program driven in my opinion and we are right back where we started. On a normal day, 60% of the activity can be attributed to algos.

Programs test buyer and seller conviction and the conclusion is that buyers are not quite as aggressive as they were and sellers are a little more aggressive than they have been in recent months. Both have been able to move price and we can see that in the mixed green and red candles.

We are heading into the Thanksgiving holiday and the market could go either way. Based on the movement we’ve seen in the last two days, we could have a decent range today. Know that this is program driven and stay flexible.

I don’t believe Durable Goods, initial claims or the Beige Book will move the needle much today.

Black Friday is an abbreviated market session. Trade desks will be lightly staffed and the volume should be light.

We’ve seen buyers and sellers move the market in the last few weeks and the SPY is sitting right at AVWAPQ. We are right in the middle of the range set by the all-time high and the 100-day MA. We could go either way. Reduce your trade size and count. This is a low probability environment and it will be hard to make money.

Spend time with your family and take a few days off. Forget the woes of the world and focus on what’s right in front of you. Life is grand!

Happy Thanksgiving!

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