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Jobs Report In Line With Expectations
www.oneoption.com
That’s because everyone expected the government shutdown to continue and the BLS didn’t publish a report.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – The saying, “No news is good news” rings loud this morning. The government shutdown means we won’t have a jobs report. That favors the current trend.
Yesterday the market made a new all-time high. After a pullback, it found support and it recovered. That bid check will give buyers added confidence that profit taking is at a minimum and we should see higher prices today.
ADP and Challenger Gray & Christmas employment reports were soft and we could have been heading for a soft number today. I don’t think it would have mattered. A bad jobs report would strengthen the case for one or two more rate cuts this year. That’s all the market is focused on. A strong jobs report would have reduced recession fears and that could have also sparked a rally. This market wants to move higher and we can see that in the price action.
Regarding the shutdown I think this is going to be resolved quickly. I just watched ABC News and they referred to it as the Democrat shutdown. With 2/3 of the country wanting the government to stay open (recent poll), the Dems will sign the CR. The mid-terms are a year away and if they plan on flipping the House, they need to end this. Trump is also preparing to lay off thousands of government workers and Dems don’t want that. I hate to get political, but I feel that Reps have the optics on their side.
Will this matter? If there is a quick resolution the market will continue on its path. If this shutdown continues for another week, the market will get uneasy and then the threat of a minor pullback increases.
From a technical perspective, the market wants to rally. In two weeks seasonality will flip from bearish to bullish.
The bid check yesterday with a new all-time closing high bodes well for a rally today. Support has been confirmed and overseas markets were up. The market is flat overnight. Find your stocks early. If the market attacks the high from yesterday and it gets through on the first attempt, we are going to grind higher.
Yesterday’s range is support and resistance.
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