Daily Commentary: October 08, 2025

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Shutdown Will Get Old

Posted by Pete Stolcers on October 08
www.oneoption.com

The market will send a warning to politicians if this drags on.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – The government shutdown has lasted more than a week and there’s no progress on a continuing resolution. To this point the market has ignored the news on the notion that this will quickly be resolved. Politicians have always kicked the can down the road. As this wears on, investors will get nervous.

In the last few days the market has had some intraday drops on heavy volume so we might be seeing some early warning signs.

The news is light this week and the employment back drop is likely to be weak. We don’t know for certain because the jobs report wasn’t published. Institutions don’t like uncertainty. ADP and Challenger Gray & Christmas were weak and those are the most recent employment data points. ISM Services fell to 50 last week and that is right on the edge of contraction.

The FOMC Minutes will be released this afternoon. There is not much to drive the market so that could be a focal point. I am not expecting anything new, but a hint that more Fed officials might be leaning towards a rate cut in three weeks would be bullish.

I’m not bearish, just cautious. We still have two weeks of seasonal bearishness. Earnings season will kick off next week and we will see if a decline in employment is starting to impact credit delinquencies at major banks.

The last four days the SPY has closed lower than the open. That combined with the volume spikes during market drops the last few days has me in defensive mode. I won’t chase early moves higher. The closes have been lower than the opens so there is no reason to. If the market drops to the EMA 8 and if I see some nice green stacked candles, I will lean on that support and take short term day trades and possibly an overnight position or two.

Europe was up slightly overnight and Asia was down slightly. There is not much of a tailwind and the futures are relatively flat.

I would wait to see if this overnight move up holds. If it reverses quickly, watch for the low from yesterday to be tested. I want to see a higher low before I buy and I want to see light volume on the way down. If the early gain holds for an hour it will be a sign that buyers are supporting the move up and you can try some longs.

Yesterday’s range is support and resistance.

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