Daily Commentary: October 11, 2023

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Don’t Chase the Market Gap Up

Posted by Peter Stolcers on October 11

PPI was “hot” and we should see a little selling early today. I am waiting patiently for an opportunity to buy.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – The market has been able to find support above the 200-day MA.

I am not particularly bullish or bearish. The same issues that have kept us in this range are still in play. The Fed plans to keep rates “higher for longer”. The PPI came in a little hotter than expected this morning so that will keep them in that mode. The CPI will be released tomorrow.

Earnings season will kick off this Friday. That typically keeps short sellers at bay. In two weeks, mega cap tech companies will report and that will coincide with a seasonally bullish period. That also syncs up with the next FOMC meeting.

I am not expecting a big year end rally, but we could challenge the high of the year. There will still be bid checks along the way to confirm that buyers are still interested, so don’t expect a big snap-back rally. This is going to be a gradual drift higher with higher lows.

The market tends to keep doing what it has been doing. This has been the prevailing pattern this year. The economy has not fallen off of a cliff after the most aggressive tightening in decades and there are not any signs of a credit crisis. Inflation remains a concern and stock valuations are fairly rich. The Fed is close to the end of its tightening cycle. This backdrop can suit buyers and sellers on any given day and the price action is driven by the most recent headlines.

From a humanitarian standpoint, wars are horrific. From a trading standpoint, they do not have a lasting market impact.

Swing traders can sell out of the money bullish put spreads on strong stocks. I believe the market will hold the 200-day MA through year end and there is a good chance it will start to grind higher from this level.

The market has been trying to move higher overnight and the PPI should have sparked a little selling, but it did not. Given the market bounce the last two days, there is room for a move lower. The fact that we did not get one tells me that the bid is pretty strong at this level. Overseas markets were up marginally overnight and that could have simply been following our rally Tuesday. The news was slightly bearish and I believe this is a bull trap. Be patient. I would NOT chase this opening gap higher. Bonds have been trading higher (yields down) and that is a bit surprising. That could be because the huge drop recently is over-extended. Regardless of the reason, bonds also have a bid.

I like the market here, but not enough to chase after a bearish headline. I want to see a wimpy retracement with mixed overlapping candles and I want to see the close from yesterday preserved (not tested). If we quickly fill the gap, we could go through a lengthy bid check that lasts a couple of hours. Given the support we have seen around the 200-day MA the last week and given the strength of the bounce, I feel a gap reversal and a bearish trend day are not very likely. I just feel that sellers do not have enough power to drive the market down. I am favoring the long side, but I am patiently waiting for the best entry point. That should be your mindset.

Support is at $430.75 (AVWAPQ) and the 200-day MA. Resistance is at the high from Tuesday and the 100-day MA.

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