Daily Commentary: October 15, 2024

Auto Post1Option Commentary

Market Floating Higher On Low Volume

Posted by Pete Stolcers on October 15
www.oneoption.com

This is not a strong move so use caution. The path if least resistance is up.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Yesterday the market gapped up during a banking holiday and sellers took the day off. The result was a light volume gap and go from the open. There was an opportunity to buy the dip two hours into the day.

The overnight news has been light. Europe is down slightly and China’s market is giving back some of the “sugar high” gains from PBOC easing. I feel Chinese stocks are a short. The structural issues run deep.

Bank earnings have been good and these stocks have provided nice support for the market. TSM earnings Thursday morning will be the highlight of the week. It will set the tone for chip stocks. That morning we will also see if initial jobless claims stay elevated after a big jump last week.

I like swapping in and out of strong stocks on a short-term swing basis and keeping longer-term overnight risk fairly low. Asset Managers are not placing big bets ahead of the election and the FOMC statement two days after.

Day traders should not chase higher opens. At these levels the odds of a gap reversal off of an early high are great. If the market grinds higher like it did yesterday, you will have an opportunity to buy a dip. Yes, you could have bought the open and you could have done well, but you also ran the risk of a sharp reversal. If you waited for the dip two hours later you were able to tell that the selling pressure was minimal and you could have seen that the bounce off of VWAP was a sign that buyers were more aggressive than sellers. Your odds at that point were much higher. Most of the opening gaps up have been faded the last few weeks and you can see that in a 5 minute chart.

Support is at the low from yesterday. Resistance is SPY $590.

Live Trading

Open an Account

Paper Trading

Register