Daily Commentary: October 22, 2024

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Buy Dips and Take Profits On Bounces

Posted by Pete Stolcers on October 22
www.oneoption.com

The market is not going anywhere fast ahead of the Fed and the Election.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Overnight markets were generally soft and the SPY is going to open slightly lower this morning. TLT has broken below the major moving averages and it is testing a major uptrend line that started a year ago. Higher interest rates are not market friendly and they are not consistent with the Fed’s dovish stance. If the Fed is on an “easing path”, why are rates moving higher? The US has to refinance $7T in debt in the next year and both candidates will run big deficits. VIX/VXX is off of the lows from July, but it is not climbing.

Earnings season is starting to crank up, but we are over a week away from mega cap tech earnings. TSLA will report Wednesday after the close. Banks have dominated the early releases and in general, profits have been good and the reactions have been positive.

The economic releases are light this week and very heavy next week. The recent hurricanes might have disrupted unemployment claims in the southeast. They have been creeping higher and I will be watching that on Thursday. A number above 250K could spark some concerns.

From a technical perspective, the market is floating higher, but this is not a strong move. We made a marginal new high on light volume and the price action has been very tenuous. This pattern should continue the rest of the week. Next week’s price action will be very data dependent. In two weeks, we will be watching the election results and we will be waiting for the FOMC statement.

From a swing trading standpoint I would have minimal exposure. Have a couple of overnights on and take gains when the stock rallies. Swap out your swing trades. By next week I suggest being sidelined. I don’t see the market moving much before the election, the FOMC and mega cap tech earnings. Risk is elevated and we will have a great window of opportunity after these events.

Your day trading tactic should be to identify strong stocks that are staging D1 breakouts on heavy volume. Don’t chase, buy dips. Every day the market has gone through a “bid check”. Once support has been confirmed, you have an opportunity to buy these stocks. The price action during the “bid check” tells you what to expect. If the move is deep and it lasts a long time with nice red candles, don’t buy. If the market can’t challenge VWAP during the day, don’t buy. These are signs that we might have a bearish trend day. That means you won’t be trading. If the “bid check” is wimpy with mixed overlapping candles and the prior day’s low is intact, there will be a bounce. Off of the low of the day, you want to see nice long green candles (bullish hammer or bullish engulf) and SPY has to easily get back to VWAP.

Support is at AVWAPQ and resistance is at the all-time high.

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