Daily Commentary: October 23, 2024

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Election Compression

Posted by Pete Stolcers on October 23
www.oneoption.com

The market is happy right where it is.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – Traders are waiting for mega cap tech earnings, major economic releases next week, the election and the FOMC statement. That will all play out in the next two weeks and until then, no one is placing big bets on which way we go.

Europe was soft overnight and Asia was firm. Both are offsetting.

TSLA reports earnings today after the close and it is the major announcement this week. AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, META and MSFT all report next week.

The Beige Book will be released this afternoon and it gives us a peek at growth across different geographic regions in the US. This is not typically a market mover. Tomorrow we will see if initial jobless claims are continuing to increase. This is an interesting number, but it is only one weekly look at employment. Next week, GDP (first reading for Q3), JOLTS, ADP, ISM manufacturing and the jobs report will be released.

The following week we have the election on Tuesday and the FOMC statement on Thursday (according to the Fed’s website).

The longer-term trend is up so we lean on that. The market is down this morning. Evaluate the price action on the way down. That will tell you when and where we should expect support. Once it has been confirmed, buy strong stocks. If the market continues to leak lower, you will have to wait longer for your window to set up. We can expect choppy, directionless price action the rest of the week and early next week.

I would start reducing swing exposure as we head into next week.

Support is at AVWAPQ and resistance is at the all-time high. Anything in between is noise.

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