Daily Commentary: October 30, 2024

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Upward Buying Pressure Is Building

Posted by Pete Stolcers on October 30
www.oneoption.com

The market is ready to stage another leg higher.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – The economic news has been good and the earnings reactions have been positive. The market has been compressing near the all-time high for three months and that has given the bid a chance to grow.

This morning ADP reported that 244K new jobs were created in the private sector. That was a very strong reading and it bodes well for Friday’s jobs report. GDP grew at 2.8%. That is slightly lower than the 3% that was expected, but it is still a good number. This was our first look at Q3 growth.

In general, tech earnings announcements have been positive. Google is up overnight and Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon are on deck today and tomorrow. The market is close to where it was in August. We have an extra quarter of profits and by nature, that tells us that valuations are better now than they were in July.

The election is approaching. Since 2000, the market has gone up four times the day after. It went down once in 2008 and that was because we were in the middle of a financial crisis. It was volatile once (2000) and that had to do with “hanging chads” and a recount. In general, the bias has been bullish.

The market is entering the most seasonally bullish period of the year.

Yes, I am favoring the long side. If you are passive, you should wait for the outcome next Thursday (FOMC statement). If you are more aggressive, take starter long positions and add on a breakout to a new high.

Support is at AVWAPQ and resistance is at the all-time high.

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