Daily Commentary: September 01, 2023

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Jobs Report Was Good – Don’t Chase

Posted by Peter Stolcers on September 01

This was a great number, but the market has had big gains this week. Be patient.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – This morning the jobs report showed that 185K new jobs were created in August and that was a perfect number. Not too hot and not too cold. There were downward revisions for previous months to the tune of 100K jobs. Hourly wages increased .2% and that is down from .4% in July. This is a very market friendly release.

China’s Caixin PMI came in better than expected at 51 and global markets were up marginally.

The marked staged a big rally earlier in the week and it has rested for a couple of days. It is up 35 points from the close yesterday and “Gap and Go” patterns are challenging to trade. We might get one this morning.

I hate chasing after such a strong week. If you have stocks that have been strong recently and that are not surging higher on the open, you can ease into those. I am not a fan of this, but the number was bullish.

The better approach is to wait for the pending bearish cross. If you are going to do this, you have to be willing to miss some of this move on the notion that you will enter better. If the market does push higher, I can guarantee you that there will be an entry point later today.

During the bearish cross, we want to see the gains hold and we want to compress near the high of the day. When that cycle runs it will be proof that buyers are supporting the gap up. When we get the bullish 1OP cross, you can enter with confidence. Waiting will also give you time to find the best stocks. Everything is going to pop on the open, but not everything will hold the gains.

Support is the 50-day MA and resistance is $454.

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