Daily Commentary: September 10, 2024

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CPI Tomorrow

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 10
www.oneoption.com

The price action is news driven and the inflation reading tomorrow is the most significant economic release this week.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Yesterday the market bounced after a heavy day of selling and it is up this morning. The SPY is within striking distance of the 50-day MA and it is likely to be tested this morning. There is also some “Fed speak”.

The long awaited Presidential Debate is tonight. The policies have a stark contrast when it comes to corporate and capital gains taxes. The polls are even and we’ll see if they shift in one direction or the other.

The CPI will be released tomorrow and the market is priced for a decline in inflation. The trend has been lower and that is providing the Fed with the latitude it needs to cut rates a week from tomorrow. Any uptick in inflation will not be well received by the market. A quarter point rate cut is likely next week, but future rate cuts will depend on this number.

Big drops and sharp bounces have been common in the last month. Conditions are extremely volatile and that means you have to keep your swing trading light. I am still favoring the short side, but if the market rallies through the 50-day MA with ease, it will reduce my confidence. If the selling pressure was heavy, we wouldn’t see tall bounces.

From a day trading perspective there are opportunities on both sides. Watch the opening price action. If a directional move gains traction, go with it. I would be careful buying the gap up this morning.

  1. Gap reversals are dangerous.
  2. We’ve seen heavy selling last week.
  3. There is not much upside to the 50-day MA.
  4. The CPI is a major news release so traders will not be placing big bets.

The best trading set-up this morning would be a gap reversal to the downside. That would provide us with plenty of room on the downside and the move could accelerate. Watch for stacked red candles right out of the gate on good volume. If we easily breach the high from Monday the gap will start to fill. Keep an eye on VIX/VXX. If it is inching higher early in the day, that would be a sign that the selling has a chance to gain traction.

If we don’t get a gap reversal, keep your trading light. We could just chop around ahead of major news.

Support is the the high from yesterday and the low from yesterday. Resistance is the 50-day MA.

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