Daily Commentary: September 11, 2024

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Bearish Window Is Closing

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 11
www.oneoption.com

Last week the market broke through major technical support levels, but we have not seen any follow through.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – Price is truth so let’s focus on the technicals today. They tell us what buyers and sellers are doing and to what degree. When we have a long red candle like we saw Friday through a major support level on heavy volume, that is typically a warning sign. We expect an attempt at a bounce, but ideally we want to see that move squashed. That is a sign that sellers are aggressively reducing risk. We don’t mind retracement back to the halfway point of that red candle, but we don’t want to spend much if any time in the upper half of the red candle. Yesterday, the market regained almost all of the losses from Friday. It is resting just below the 50-day MA.

What is this telling us? If sellers were aggressive, they would be unloading shares of stock on any bounce. That means the market would struggle to get “off of the deck”. That’s not what we’ve seen. Buyers have been able to drive the market back up and sellers are no where to be found. On a larger scale, we saw this in August. The 10% market drop was instantly gobbled back up and the market almost made it back to the all-time high. On a micro basis, we are seeing this same type of price action on an intraday basis. Big drops are followed by big bounces. The conclusion is that the market is reacting to news releases and the price action is program driven.

After seeing the price action the last six weeks, my market bias is neutral. The breakdown in August had a chance to gain traction, but the bounce needed to be brief and shallow. That’s not what we got. The breakdown Friday had a chance to gain traction, but all of those losses have been erased.

The CPI came in as expected and the market is going to challenge the 50-day MA this morning. If we move through it with ease, we can expect follow through buying.

A week from today the FOMC statement will be released and the market is likely to chop around until then.

Support is at the low from Tuesday and resistance is at the 50-day MA.

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