Daily Commentary: September 12, 2023

Auto Post1Option Commentary

Dull Day Likely Ahead of Big News

Posted by Peter Stolcers on September 12
www.oneoption.com

The market has no direction and it is chopping around the 50-day MA. Traders are not likely to place big bets today.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The SPY closed above the 50-day MA yesterday and the overnight dip is going to test it this morning. Traders are going to wait for a major round of news in the next 24 hours and this could be a dull session.

AAPL is going to release a new iPhone, CRM is hosting a big conference, the CPI will be posted tomorrow and the ECB rate decision is scheduled Thursday.

ORCL posted earnings after the close yesterday and the stock is down 10%. That is weighing on the market and tech stocks this morning.

My comments are relatively brief this morning because I have no clue of which way the market is going to break. This could be a double top lower high that results in a test of the 100-day MA in a couple of weeks or it could be a bullish flag where we test the 52-week high. Buyers and sellers are paired off and the 50-day MA is a magnet. We have crossed it many times in the last few weeks.

My market bias is neutral and I am expecting a breakout from this wedge formation next week. This is triple witching so we are likely to get a trend day this week. That will be a good day trading opportunity, but I suggest keeping your swing trades to a minimum.

From a day trading standpoint today, we have to see what happens at the 50-day MA. Overseas markets were generally flat with marginal gains and losses. If the 50-day MA fails with ease on the first attempt, that would be slightly bearish for the day. If we get an instant bounce off of the 50-day with heavy volume and stacked green candles, it would be bullish. Unfortunately, I am not expecting either. I believe we are going to chop around today and finish near the 50-day MA. That will leave everyone guessing and traders will wait for the overnight news. Volume is the key. If we have it, the market has a good chance of making a sustained move. Without volume, we are dead in the water today and we can expect choppy two-sided moves.

Support is at the 50-day MA and $445. Resistance is at $448.50 and $450.

Live Trading

Open an Account

Paper Trading

Register