Daily Commentary: September 12, 2024

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Market Focused On Rate Cut

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 12
www.oneoption.com

Buyers are scooping up these dips ahead of the FOMC next week.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Yesterday the market probed for support once more and it staged an incredible reversal that fueled a move back above the 50-day MA. The CPI was in line with expectations and a quarter point rate cut is expected next week. This morning the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points and that was widely expected. They have not hinted at future rate cuts because slowing economic growth has been offset by rising wages in the service sector and officials are divided.

Core PPI came in at .3% and that was higher than the .2% that was expected. Initial jobless claims ticked up to 230K.

Now that the market has rallied above the 50-day MA I have had to adjust my bias. The technical breakdowns we saw last week never gained traction and I am market neutral. I expect the market to stay between the 50-day MA and the all-time high until the FOMC Statement next Wednesday. We’ve seen plenty of volatility on a weekly, daily and intraday basis in the last six weeks and that is a sign of indecision. We have to wait for one side or the other to prevail.

There is a possible Cup & Handle formation on a D1 basis, but I’m not jumping to any conclusions. The market is making higher lows, but we’ve also seen resistance at the all-time high. Until we breakout to a new all-time high or until we convincingly breach the 100-day MA, I can’t get these moves for anything longer than an overnight swing trade. The market is getting through a seasonally bearish part of the year and that time frame lasts another five weeks.

We’ve seen great intraday ranges and sustained moves within the ranges. This sets up well for day trading. After the surge yesterday, buyers are in control. Chip stocks looked particularly strong so I would favor that group. Overseas markets were up overnight and the S&P 500 is up slightly before the open. This gap up could be a little vulnerable to a bid check after a slightly hotter PPI and increasing initial jobless claims. The dip is likely to be brief and shallow. If the move lower is stubborn with mixed overlapping candles, be ready to buy early. If the bid check features long red candles, be patient and let the move run its course.

In Option Stalker and Option Stalker Pro Custom Search I like looking for stocks that are on an H1 buy signal, have a bullish cross above a major MA today, have heavy volume (RRV 1.20 or higher), have good option liquidity and are on an M5 buy signal. You do not have to chase gaps up on the open. If the stocks are not above the prior day’s high, set an alert line. After 30 minutes of trading you can also add > prior day’s high to the search criteria.

Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is at the all-time high.

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