Daily Commentary: September 15, 2023

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S&P 500 Is Thru Resistance

Posted by Peter Stolcers on September 15

The market will try to advance this morning. Here is what I am watching in the first hour.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – The market staged a nice rally yesterday and it was able to get through the high of the week. The volume was good, but much of that is related to triple witching. Global markets are up solidly overnight and the news is market friendly. The SPY is within striking distance of a downward sloping trendline at $452.50.

ADBE posted solid results yesterday, but the stock is down 3.5% after the release.

China’s retail sales (4.6%) and industrial production (4.5%) came in better than expected. Foreign investment was down largely due to the woes in the real estate market. Moody’s downgraded that debt yesterday and the PBOC cut rates by 25 basis points. The PBOC also injected medium term lending overnight and that is another easing move.

Yesterday the ECB raised rates by 25 basis points. The takeaway was that they are done hiking, but comments that it would only happen if inflation eases were ignored (and inflation has been rising in the EU).

Next week the Fed is expected to pause (93% odds). The comments will be scrutinized because there is a 50% chance that they will still raise rates by 25 basis points this year. Solid employment and a hotter than expected CPI (core) and PPI this week will keep them vigilant. They also do not need to worry about shocking the market since it is within striking distance of the 52-week high.

Nothing comes easy these days and every move is challenged. After a decent move yesterday, the market might be a little tired today. Much of the triple witching “rolls” have already taken place and I believe we will see a choppy attempt to get through $452.50. If you look at a continuous chart of /ES you can see a Cup & Handle formation and the close yesterday poked through it. Please don’t ask me if it is more important to watch SPY or /ES. Watch them both and be aware of technical levels. Buyers will be the aggressors and sellers will be passive early in the day. 1OP is going to start off in a bullish cycle and it is spiking. We are up slightly overnight. Look for a choppy move up. From a bullish standpoint we want to see the first 20 minutes of a bearish cycle. If the gains hold and we do not see any long red candles, we are likely to grind higher and the first bullish cycle will push us towards SPY $452.50. The absence of long red candles would prompt me to favor the long side. The move yesterday was fairly strong and the overseas markets are trading higher this morning.

Mixed candles with long tails and wicks would be a sign that the market is not going to move much. We have been able to find great stocks to trade on both sides this week.

Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is at $452.50.

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