Daily Commentary: September 16, 2025

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Fed Watch

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 16
www.oneoption.com

Is this rate cut priced in and is it a sell the news event?

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – How will the market react to the FOMC statement tomorrow? Should I hold my long positions or should I take profits? This is what every trader wants to know.

I can’t give you an answer because I don’t know what the reaction is going to be. Your confidence in this market rally is going to determine your risk exposure. If you feel that every market dip has been brief and shallow, you will stick with long positions. You are willing to ride out any pullback on the notion that the market will recover if it drops and there is a chance that it will react positively. If you are nervous about the market because of marginal new highs and seasonal weakness, you will trim your exposure and you will wait for the outcome.

Traders assess the upside rewards and they weigh them against the downside risks. How well we solve this equation determines if we are going to make or lose money. Given that the market is well above the EMA 8 going into the number, I am choosing to stay on the sidelines. If you have big gains in stocks that have been hot recently and that are also well above their EMA 8, it would be prudent to take some gains.

A 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected. We haven’t even gotten it and the market is already focused on future rate cuts. It is addicted to easy money.

The day ahead of a Fed announcement tends to be dull. You should expect choppy price action today. Overseas markets were down slightly and the S&P 500 is flat before the open. Retail sales came in at .6% and that is better than the .2% that was expected.

Today should be spent adjusting your risk exposure and setting alerts. When the news hits tomorrow the trades will be handed to you on a silver platter.

Resistance is at the overnight high ($663.65) and support is the low from Monday.

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