Daily Commentary: September 17, 2025

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The Fed Will Cut Interest Rates Today

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 17
www.oneoption.com

The market is expecting a 25 basis point rate cut today and it is already looking for hints of future rate cuts.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FED-DAY – The market is addicted to easy money and the likelihood of a rate cut today has allowed it to shoulder soft economic news in recent months.

This is a binary event and we reduce risk ahead of news like this. Is this a “sell the news” set-up? I don’t know, but I certainly hope so. Not because I’m positioned for a big drop. We need some movement and a bullish reaction would keep us in this mode of compressed intraday candles. A nice drop would breathe life back into this price action. The move could also accelerate with triple witching this Friday.

The Fed’s timeline for the next rate cut will determine if the market goes higher or lower today. If they are leaning towards another 25 basis point rate cut this year the market will rejoice. If the statement is balanced with labor concerns being offset by inflation worries, the market won’t like it.

We have one more month of seasonal weakness and then conditions turn bullish into year end. The first rate cut has historically been bullish for the market over the following few months. A nice drop during the next few weeks would provide us with the pullback we need for a year end rally. This is the ideal outcome, but we rarely get what we want. A gradual grind higher into year end would be more difficult to trade.

Interest rate cuts don’t instantly result in economic growth. It’s important to remember that the Fed is cutting rates because activity is contracting. Central banks around the world have been cutting rates for the last year and economic growth is low.

Be careful not to assume that the initial move today is going to continue overnight. It’s common to see a reversal the next day.

I don’t know how the market will react, but I know how I would like it to react. Keep your powder dry and let’s see what happens.

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