Daily Commentary: September 18, 2024

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It’s Fed-Day

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 18
www.oneoption.com

The expectations are that the Fed will cut rates by 75 basis points this year with the first one coming today.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FED-DAY – I believe the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points today and signal a willingness to cut rates again this year if conditions warrant it. They are in the driver seat and that is where we want them. Inflation has been easing and economic conditions are stable. The market is within striking distance of the all-time high and there aren’t any credit concerns. If the Fed doesn’t cut again this year, it’s a good thing. It means that economic conditions are strong. I would be more concerned if the Fed feels the need to cut again. Global economic growth is very tenuous and if they ease it is because they see trouble ahead. That is a very slippery slope for the market.

Could traders throw a tantrum if the Fed is more hawkish then they would like? Sure. Speculation that more rate cuts are coming this year is VERY high according to the open interest in bond call options. Friday is triple witching and that will add to the volatility. A market drop is likely to be temporary as long as the economic data points are stable. Inflation is easing and so is the Fed.

From a technical perspective, the market has snapped back sharply from every drop since August. That is a sign that buyers are engaged. The SPY is sitting just below the all-time high which was set yesterday. When we blow through that level, we want to close well above $565. Then we want follow through buying to happen in the next week.

Expect volatility the next few days and wait for the dust to settle. If we breakout, take a few starter swing longs, but wait for confirmation that the breakout is going to hold and add on follow through. If we breakdown, wait for support. We want to find support well above the 50-day MA. If we get that the next bounce is likely to send us through $565 and it will be a good entry point for starter longs. Then you would add on a breakout.

There will be an initial reaction, but know that there is a press conference at 2:30 PM ET. That often sparks a bigger move. Also know that the overnight reaction is often different from the initial reaction.

Support is at $560 and resistance is at $565

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