Daily Commentary: September 18, 2025

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Music To the Market’s Ears

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 18
www.oneoption.com

The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and it paved the way for two more rate cuts this year.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Yesterday the Fed gave the market exactly what it wanted – rate cut and a dovish stance for the rest of the year. That should have sparked a massive round of buying, but it didn’t. The S&P 500 finished right where it started before the statement.

Perhaps traders would feel differently about the news and rally the market overnight. That seemed to be the case, but much of the 50 point rally has been given back. The price action after the FOMC statement and the overnight price action suggests that there are buyers and sellers and that any move higher will be hard fought.

The news was market friendly and this is a major policy shift for the Fed. Some will wonder if the dramatic change is tone is a sign of economic weakness ahead and they will worry that the Fed waited too long. Based on what I’ve seen the last few months, investors will discount that outcome until they actually see weak economic releases. One bad jobs report is not going to discourage buyers. This morning initial jobless claims dropped to 231K. That suggests decent employment. Retail sales increased .6% and that is a sign that consumers are still active.

Seasonal weakness ends in one month and then seasonal strength kicks in. The longer the market goes without a drop, the less likely it is to happen. If we don’t get that drop, the market will grind higher into year end and the tiny compressed intraday trading ranges will continue. A nice drop would flush out bullish speculators and it would set up a nice support level that we can shoot higher from into year end. I would trade this pattern more aggressively, but I doubt we will see it. Buyers have been too strong and we have barely seen back to back red candles since March.

This is triple witching so we could see some volatility. I am more inclined to trade from the long side, but I won’t chase big moves higher. I am a dip buyer.

Overseas markets were strong overnight with the exception of China. Its market has been strong and China gave back some recent gains. The market hit a new all time high overnight and any dip this morning will set up a good entry point for longs.

Support is the high from Wednesday and resistance is the overnight high ($665).

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