Daily Commentary: September 19, 2023

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SPY Is Forming A Wedge

Posted by Peter Stolcers on September 19

The FOMC will break us out of it, but I don’t believe there will be any follow through.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The market chop continues. Last week the market rallied above the 50-day MA and now those gains have been given back. A D1 wedge is forming and we are right in the middle of it.

Will the FOMC statement Wednesday break us out and spark a sustained directional mov? I doubt it. The wedge is getting pretty tight and the market is likely to break out of it, but it will not go far. Everyone (93% probability) is expecting a pause and the odds of a 25 basis point rate hike this year are close to 50%. The market is expecting the same “balanced” remarks we’ve been getting. “We are closer to the end of the tightening cycle, but inflation remains high. Economic conditions are solid, but we are seeing some signs of softening.” This is going to keep buyers and sellers balanced.

The market has not moved in the last 3 months. We are likely to see choppy trading into the FOMC statement and I doubt it will produce much of a breakout. If it does… fantastic. We can try some short-term swing trades when we breakout out of the wedge.

Look for choppy conditions this morning. Global markets had a fairly negative bias and the SPY/ES are below their 50-day MAs. So are QQQ/NQ. TLT is also dropping (higher yields) and it could test the low from August. Republicans have a proposal that will kick the debt ceiling can down the road a month and that would avoid a government shut down. September has a bearish seasonal bias.  

Support is at $442 and resistance is at $452.

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