Daily Commentary: September 19, 2024

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Market Makes All-Time High

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 19
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Institutions decided the FOMC Statement was bullish!

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – After the biggest rate cut in years, the market barely moved yesterday. That was a little puzzling since a 50 basis point rate cut was the best possible scenario. The Fed is dovish, inflation is easing and economic data points remain stable. Powell said that they are not going to wait for a downturn in employment to act. The Fed doesn’t see any warning signs and they are being proactive.

From a technical perspective, we have a Cup & Handle breakout on a D1 basis. When we make a new all-time high, we want to obliterate the old horizontal resistance and we are doing that this morning.

There is an important consideration. This move did not happen during normal market hours when the large institutions were active. The price action overnight can often be misleading because there is not much volume. This is a triple witch and an overnight move of this magnitude is going to force some major adjustments on the part of proprietary trading firms that means that it is exaggerated.

Gaps up to an all-time high often result in a gap reversal. This is true, but that is more common when the gap up takes place during a straight shot higher. That’s not what we have. The market hit resistance and it has been gathering momentum for the last six weeks. Now it is breaking out. This is a much healthier backdrop. Massive gaps up also tend to be “stickier” and we don’t see as many gap reversals.

So how do we trade this? I would watch the opening price action and I would be 100% fine with letting a “Gap and Go” run without me. These are pretty rare at an all-time high. Watch the price action unfold. A deep swift drop after the open would suggest profit taking and I would hold off on longs. A wimpy bid check with mixed overlapping candles would be a sign that buyers are interested. Then we would have a good entry point for longs. TAKE ALL OF THE STOCKS YOU LOVE THE MOST AND SET THESE TWO ALERTS. 1. M5 > VWAP. Most stocks will open above VWAP. You want a shot at them when they retrace and get back above VWAP. 2. M5 Buy Signal. Most stocks will be on an M5 buy signal. You want them to go to an exit which will happen on a dip and then to go back onto a buy signal. When you get that alert, evaluate the dip.

From a swing standpoint you can take some starter longs. There are no bargains at an all-time high with stretched valuations so don’t chase and don’t load up. We can expect that the breakout will be tested and I feel there will be plenty of opportunities to add to swing longs. We want to make sure this breakout holds.

Support is at SPY $565.

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